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03/06/2010 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Misremembered, ridden by Martin Garcia, held off Neko Bay down the stretch to win Saturday's 73rd running of the $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap (Big 'Cap) at Santa Anita Park.
The four-year-old covered the 1 1/4-miles in 2:00.20.
Trained by Bob Baffert, Misremembered was trying to snap a three-race losing streak, where he was second in each attempt. He was coming off a loss to Jeranimo as the 7-10 favorite in the Strub Stakes at Santa Anita.
The pace in the Big 'Cap was set by Mast Track with jockey David Flores. Misremembered was racing second with Marsh Side third and Jeranimo running fourth in the 14-horse field.
Entering the far turn, Misremembered swung to the outside to take the lead as Dakota Phone made a move to the front. Misremembered had the lead at the top of the stretch as Neko Bay, on the inside, went past Dakota Phone.
Misremembered was able to repel Neko Bay down the stretch and posted a neck victory over the seven-year-old. Dakota Phone finished third, with Jeranimo fourth.
Completing the order of finish was Rendezvous, St Trinians, Marsh Side, Delightful Kiss, Pick Six, Pool Play, Loup Breton, Tiger's Rock, Eagle Poise and Mast Track. St Trinians was the only female in the race.
Misremembered is co-owned by Baffert and Natalie and George Jacobs. The Big 'Cap win was worth $450,000 and was the fifth career victory for the horse in 11 career starts. Misremembered has lifetime earnings of $1,188,589.
Last year he won the Swaps and Indiana Derby and finished 2009 as the runner- up in the Clark Handicap and Malibu Stakes.
Misremembered returned $10.80, $6.00 and $4.40. Neko Bay paid $7.80 and $6.00, and Dakota Phone paid $10.40 to show.
Additionally, in the rescheduled Sham Stakes for three-year-olds, it was Alphie's Bet taking the lead at the top of the stretch on his way to a 2 1/4- length victory. The Sham is a prep for the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 3.
Alphie's Bet, ridden by Alex Solis, captured the $150,000 Sham and put himself on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Sent off at 8-1 in the 10 horse field, Alphie's Bet won the 1 1/8-mile stakes in a time of 1:48.72.
Finishing second was 5-2 favorite Setsuko followed by The Program, Outlaw Man, Boulder Creek, Marcello, Nextdoorneighbor, Kettle River, El Mirage King and Wolf Tail.
Alphie's Bet is trained by Alexis Barba for owners Peter Johnson and Teresa McWilliams. The win was worth $90,000 and is the colt's first stakes victory. In five career starts, Alphie's Bet has two wins and $141,320.
"He was a little bit closer than I thought he'd be," Barba said. "I was pleased to see it, actually. I was pleased to see that he got into the race a little earlier than his last race, in which he was kind of pinched back a little bit. So it was nice to see him closer, instead of that horrifying last place at the quarter pole. I'm not sure what we're going to do with this horse yet (for his next race). We're going to discuss it and then we're going to let you know after we figure it out."
Alphie's Bet paid $19.00, $8.40 and $4.80. Setsuko returned $4.40 and $3.20, and The Program paid $4.00 to show.
<< BYU trounces TCU to end season on high note
Fort Worth, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jonathan Tavernari scored 23 points, as
14th-ranked BYU breezed past TCU, 107-77, at Daniel-Meyer Coliseum.
Jackson Emery and Charles Abouo each added 22 points for the Cougars (28-4,
13-3 MWC), who
<< Vols start strong in win over Mississippi State
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - J.P. Prince scored 16 and grabbed seven
rebounds, and No. 16 Tennessee opened the game with the first 17 points to
conclude the regular season with a 75-59 win over the Mississippi State
Bulldog
<< Purdue downs PSU, captures share of Big Ten title
University Park, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - JaJuan Johnson finished with 21 points
and 10 rebounds, as seventh-ranked Purdue claimed a share of the Big Ten title
with a 64-60 victory over Penn State.
Keaton Grant added 17 points for the Boile
<< Wild forward Boogaard suspended again
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wild forward Derek Boogaard was suspended for
two games on Saturday by the National Hockey League for an incident during
Minnesota's game against Edmonton on Friday.
In the first period of Friday's cont
Raiders release RB Fargas >>
Alameda, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Raiders released long-time
running back Justin Fargas on Saturday.
The team indicated Fargas had failed a physical and issued a statement
thanking him for his contributions over
ETSU wins Atlantic Sun for second straight year >>
Macon, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Tubbs led a balanced scoring attack with
18 points, and the East Tennessee State Buccaneers secured their second
consecutive Atlantic Sun tournament championship with a 72-66 victory over
Mercer.
Theodore, Caps blank Rangers >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Theodore stopped all 30 shots he faced
for his first shutout of the season, as Washington posted a defensive-oriented
2-0 victory over the New York Rangers at Verizon Center.
Eric Fehr and Eric Belang
Vokun stops 31 in win over Carolina >>
Sunrise, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tomas Vokoun's 31 saves set the tone for
Florida's 4-1 victory to snap the Carolina Hurricanes' seven-game win streak
at Bank Atlantic Center.
Kamil Kreps scored twice, including an empty-net goal,
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Will Ohio State continue to run the table in College Football betting odds?
MySportsbook.com favors Buckeyes, Fighting Irish and Golden Bears in this weekend's big games.
NEW YORK, NY, Sept. 21 - My Sportsbook NCAA football fans: things are beginning to get really interesting on college football's national stage. Following last weekend's "Separation Saturday", which included five teams ranked in the top 15 dropping games, the BCS Championship picture is beginning to take shape - with Ohio State leading the charge. And, according to odds makers at MySportsbook.com, the number-one-ranked Buckeyes will continue their winning ways this weekend.
Revenge will be the name of the game in Columbus this Saturday, as Ohio State looks to even the score following last season's loss to Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions. Although Penn State are listed as 16.5 point underdogs, they are 11-10 all-time versus the Buckeyes. Paterno and the Lions, however, will have to shut down Heisman Trophy favorite Troy Smith who has thrown for 769 yards and seven touchdowns this season.
Speaking of revenge, Notre Dame will be out for some against Michigan State, following last year's 44 - 41 overtime loss to the Spartans in South Bend. The thirteenth-ranked Irish, listed as a 3-point favorite, will also be looking to avenge last Saturday's thrashing from the Michigan Wolverines. The Spartans, meanwhile, have won seven of the last nine match-ups against Notre Dame and are coming off an impressive 38-23 victory over Pittsburgh.
Out west, 22nd-ranked Arizona State will be battling for their first victory over 21st-ranked California since 2000. Although the Golden Bears are listed as 7.5-point favorites, the Sun Devils are 3-0, lead the nation in sacks with 18 and possess the Pac-10's leading passer in sophomore quarterback Rudy Carpenter.
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NCAA Football betting lines (home team in CAPS)
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Date Favorite Opponent Point Spread
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Sept 21 GEORGIA TECH Virginia 17
Sept 22 NEVADA Northwestern 6.5
Sept 23 MICHIGAN Wisconsin 14
Sept 23 Minnesota PURDUE 3
Sept 23 SYRACUSE Miami (Ohio) 6.5
Sept 23 MISSOURI Ohio 21.5
Sept 23 Louisville KANSAS STATE 14
Sept 23 TENNESSEE Marshall 22
Sept 23 CLEMSON North Carolina 16.5
Sept 23 FLORIDA Kentucky 24
Sept 23 Iowa ILLINOIS 20.5
Sept 23 FLORIDA STATE Rice 30.5
Sept 23 AUBURN Buffalo 41.5
Sept 23 BOWLING GREEN Kent 7
Sept 23 NAVY Tulsa 4.5
Sept 23 VIRGINIA TECH Cincinnati 27
Sept 23 BYU Utah State 29
Sept 23 OHIO STATE Penn State 16.5
Sept 23 TEXAS Iowa State 25
Sept 23 Washington State STANFORD 10
Sept 23 CALIFORNIA Arizona State 7.5
Sept 23 UCLA WASHINGTON 3
Sept 23 INDIANA Connecticut 1.5
Sept 23 Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 4
Sept 23 WYOMING Air Force 1
Sept 23 UTEP NEW MEXICO 9.5
Sept 23 West Virginia EAST CAROLINA 21
Sept 23 Boston College NORTH CAROLINA STATE 7
Sept 23 GEORGIA Colorado 27
Sept 23 ARKANSAS Alabama 1.5
Sept 23 BAYLOR Army 11
Sept 23 WESTERN MICHIGAN Temple 28
Sept 23 MISSISSIPPI Wake Forest 2.5
Sept 23 KANSAS South Florida 5.5
Sept 23 TEXAS A&M Louisiana Tech 23.5
Sept 23 UAB Mississippi State 9.5
Sept 23 LSU Tulane 36
Sept 23 Utah SAN DIEGO STATE 6.5
Sept 23 BOISE STATE Hawaii 15
Sept 23 Notre Dame MICHIGAN STATE 3
Sept 23 USC ARIZONA U 22
Sept 23 Oklahoma State HOUSTON 1
Sept 23 OREGON STATE Idaho 23
Sept 23 OKLAHOMA Middle Tennessee State 29
Sept 23 MARYLAND Florida International 18.5
Sept 23 AKRON North Texas 17.5
Sept 23 SOUTH CAROLINA Florida Atlantic 29.5
Sept 23 NEBRASKA Troy 23
Sept 23 SMU Arkansas State 6
For complete NCAA football odds and World Series odds please visit MySportsbook.com
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